Ayrshire Chamber of Commerce's latest Quarterly Economic Survey highlights weakening confidence, rising costs and urgent calls for pro-growth policy support.
Ayrshire businesses remain resilient, but the latest Quarterly Economic Survey points to growing economic pressure, weakening confidence and mounting concerns about future profitability. Nearly half of firms now expect profitability to worsen over the next year, while confidence, demand and investment have all weakened since the start of 2026.
The survey, which gathered responses from 111 businesses employing more than 12,000 people across the region, reveals that while firms remain committed to investing in their workforce and supporting growth, many are facing significant pressures from rising costs, skills shortages and weakening demand.
The findings paint a picture of businesses that remain committed to growth but are becoming increasingly concerned about profitability, investment and future trading conditions.
Key findings from Q2 2026 include:
• 45% of Ayrshire businesses expect profitability to worsen over the next 12 months, up from 29% in Q1, making profitability the clearest warning signal in the survey.
• Business confidence has fallen sharply, with only 41% expecting turnover to improve, down from 58% in the previous quarter.
• Domestic sales growth and forward UK orders have weakened significantly, pointing to softer demand and a more challenging trading environment.
• Domestic sales growth fell from 39% to 23%, while forward orders declined from 32% to 17%.
• Investment remains cautious, with 34% of businesses reducing investment in plant and machinery and only 12% increasing investment.
• Cost pressures continue to dominate, with labour costs (72%) and utilities (71%) placing significant pressure on operating costs.
• Inflation remains the number one concern for businesses, cited by 68% of respondents, followed by taxation (50%) and business rates (42%).
• Despite economic uncertainty, recruitment demand remains strong, with 64% of businesses attempting to recruit during the quarter.
• Skills shortages continue to constrain growth, with 90% of recruiting businesses reporting difficulties finding suitable candidates.
• Confidence in policymakers continues to decline, with 72% of respondents saying they do not believe the Scottish Government understands the needs of Ayrshire businesses, up from 66% in Q1.
Claire Baird, Chief Executive at Ayrshire Chamber of Commerce, said:
"Q2 presents a more challenging picture for Ayrshire's economy than the cautious confidence we saw at the start of the year. While many businesses continue to show remarkable resilience, they are doing so against a backdrop of ongoing economic uncertainty, global volatility and persistent cost pressures.
“The survey shows businesses have not lost ambition. Firms continue to recruit, invest in people and look for opportunities to grow. However, profitability is emerging as the clearest warning signal. Businesses may still be generating revenue, but rising labour, energy and operating costs are eroding margins and reducing the headroom available for investment and expansion.
“Most significantly, 72% of respondents do not believe the Scottish Government understands the needs of businesses in Ayrshire, rising from 66% in Q1.
“Ayrshire businesses are seeking practical support that reflects the region's economic importance and ambitions. They are asking for policy that recognises the reality of operating here, with lower and more predictable costs, better support for skills and apprenticeships, improved connectivity and a stronger commitment to regional economic growth.
“The message from Ayrshire businesses is clear: ambition remains, but the conditions for growth are becoming harder to sustain. If policymakers want businesses to invest, recruit and grow, they must reduce costs, remove barriers and create the confidence that makes those decisions possible."
Businesses Seek Delivery, Not Promises
The survey findings suggest businesses are seeking practical interventions that reduce the cost of doing business and create stronger conditions for growth. Businesses are calling for measures that reduce cost pressures, improve access to skills and accelerate investment. Business rates reform, tax incentives, support with energy costs, skills development and improved infrastructure were among the most frequently cited priorities.